ELECTORAL VOTE TIE POSSIBLE??


As improbable as it may be, as unlikely as it may seem, the 2000 Presidential
election could end up in a tie in the electoral vote. If the polls Nov 2 are taken
at face value, the election would look like this:


ELECTORAL COLLEGE TOTALS: (270 needed to win)
LEADS OUTSIDE MoE ALL LEADS
STATES EVs STATES EVs
Bush 21 149 Bush 28 239
Gore 7 67 Gore 17 244

TOSS-UPS: 55 EVs (AR, FL, ME, NH, NM and TN)

STATE BUSH GORE POLL DATE MoE
(+ indicates lead inside the MoE, ++ a lead outside)
AL (9) ++55 37 Capital Survey 10/18-20 +/- 4.7
AK (3) ++47 26 ARG 9/11-17 +/- 4
AR (6) 46 46 Opinion Res. LR 10/27-30 +/- 4
+45 44 Mason-Dixon 10/27-29 +/- 4
AZ (8) ++49 39 KAET-TV/AZ Univ. 10/19-22 +/- 4
CA (54) 40 +47 Field Poll 10/27-31 +/- 3.2
CT (8) 32 ++48 Univ. of CT 9/26-10/1 +/- 5
CO (8) ++46 37 Ciruli 10/27-30 +/- 5
DC (3) 14 ++73 ARG 9/7-11 +/- 4
DE (3) 43 +45 Mason-Dixon 10/4-5 +/- 4
FL (25) 41 +48 Zogby 10/30-11/1+/- 4
+46 44 Mason-Dixon 10/30-31 +/- 3.5
44 +49 ARG 10/30-11/1+/- 4
GA (13) +48 40 Mason-Dixon 10/12-14 +/- 4
HI (4) 29 ++57 ARG 9/5-11 +/- 4
IA (7) +44 41 PSI Poll 10/30 +/- 5
ID (4) ++56 30 Mason-Dixon 10/25-26 +/- 4
IL (22) 42 +46 Zogby 10/30-11/1+/- 4
43 +46 Mason-Dixon 10/28-30 +/- 4
IN (12) ++53 30 Market Shares 10/26-28 +/- 4
KS (6) ++55 32 ARG 9/12-15 +/- 4
KY (8) ++55 40 Bluegrass Poll 10/26-29 +/- 4
LA (9) ++52 39 Mason-Dixon 10/20-22 +/- 4
MA (12) 26 ++57 ARG 9/8-13 +/- 4
MD (10) 40 +48 Mason-Dixon 10/25-26 +/- 4
ME (4) 42 42 RKM Research 10/28-30 +/- 4
MI (18) 41 ++50 Zogby 10/30-11/1+/- 4
40 +45 Detroit News 10/30-31 +/- 5
44 +48 ARG 10/30-11/1+/- 4
MN (10) 41 +44 Mason-Dixon 10/26-27 +/- 4
MO (11) +46 43 Zogby 10/30-11/1+/- 4
MS (7) ++48 37 ARG 9/12-16 +/- 4
MT (3) ++49 37 Mason-Dixon 10/23-24 +/- 4
NE (5) ++56 31 RKM Research 10/25-27 +/- 3
NV (4) +47 43 Mason-Dixon 10/26-28 +/- 4
NH (4) +45 40 ARG 10/30-11/1+/- 4
42 +43 RKM Research 10/30-31 +/- 4.5
NJ (15) 36 +41 Gannett NJ Poll 10/26-28 +/- 4.1
35 ++47 Star Ledger 10/23-26 +/- 4.5
NY (33) 36 ++51 Zogby 10/30-11/1+/- 3.8
35 ++35 Princeton 10/28-31 +/- 3
36 ++50 Marist 10/29-30 +/- 4.5
NM (5) 42 42 NM State Univ. 9/26-28 +/- 4
+44 41 Mason-Dixon 9/28-30 +/- 5
NC (14) ++52 42 Research 2000 10/30-31 +/- 5
+48 41 Mason-Dixon 10/27-30 +/- 4
ND (3) ++47 35 Public Affairs 10/2-5 +/- 4
OH (21) +48 40 Zogby 10/30-11/1+/- 4
OK (8) ++51 33 Consumer Logic 9/23-10/2 +/- 3.5
OR (7) +45 41 ARG 10/20-24 +/- 4
PA (23) 41 +47 Zogby 10/29-31 +/- 4
42 +48 ARG 10/30-11/1+/- 4
RI (4) 29 ++47 Brown Univ. 10/21-22 +/- 5
SC (8) ++53 38 Mason-Dixon 10/27-30 +/- 4
SD (3) ++55 34 ARG 9/6-10 +/- 4
TN (11) +48 45 Zogby 10/30-11/1+/- 4
43 49 ARG 10/30-11/1+/- 4
TX (32) ++58 30 ARG 9/14-19 +/- 4
UT (5) ++57 29 ARG 9/8-12 +/- 4
VA (13) +49 41 Mason-Dixon 10/30-31 +/- 4
VT (3) 36 ++52 Research 2000 10/23-25 +/- 5
WA (11) 43 +45 Zogby 10/30-11/1+/- 4
WV (5) ++47 37 OH State 10/11-24 +/- 4
++46 36 Ryan-McGinn (R) 10/21-23 +/- 4
WI (11) 42 +45 Zogby 10/30-11/1+/- 4
WY (3) ++57 37 Mason-Dixon 9/16-17 +/- 5


And if Bush were to carry Florida and New Mexico and Gore able to carry
Arkansas, Maine, New Hampshire, and Tennessee, the two would end up
both with 269 electoral votes. 270 are needed to win:

Bush 239 plus Florida(25) and New Mexico(5) = 269

That would be a real shock, especially since it would seem that Bush has the
inside track and will prevail. But in that event, a peculiar set of circumstances
would be set in motion as set forth in the Constitution.

This exact situation has not happened before, although there have been elections
when the popular vote winner did not win the electoral vote (1888 and 1960),
and third party candidates have distorted the outcome (it could have happened
in 1948, 68, 92, and 96). It is also possible that Bush may get more popular votes
than Gore, but Gore prevail in the electoral college.

There was an election in which the Congress had to choose the President. In 1800,
because of a glich that developed due to the rise of parties and tickets, neither
Jefferson nor Pinckney won the race and the House had to decide on who would
be President. That led to the adoption of the 12th Amendment. It has not happened
since. But this could be the year.

The outcome would depend on the partisan make-up of the House of Representatives. That may be different by degree from the way it is now
after the election. Each state would have one vote regardless of the number
of representatives it had, and in order to win, one of the top three candidates
in electoral votes would have to 'win' 26 states. Since in all likelihood, there
will be only two candidates with electoral votes, the House would have to
choose between Bush and Gore. The new Senate, with Al Gore still sitting
as Vice President and President of the Senate, would select a new Vice President.

The partisan break-down in the current House in most states is unlikely to change
so much as to alter the basic chemistry of that potential vote. There are 26 states
with Republican delegation majorities that should still be that way in January:

1. Alabama
2. Alaska
3. Arizona
4. Colorado
5. Delaware
6. Florida
7. Georgia
8. Idaho
9. Indiana
10. Iowa
11. Kansas
12. Kentucky
13. Louisiana
14. Mississippi
15. Montana
16. Nebraska
17. Nevada
18. New Hampshire
19. New Mexico
20. Ohio
21. Oklahoma
22. South Carolina
23. South Dakota
24. Tennessee
25. Utah
26. Wyoming

Bush would seem a shoe-in if the House had to vote on this exigency,
since it is less than likely that they would lose their edge in any of them.
That does not mean, however, that Democrats 'control' the others. They
would reasonably be supposed to control the delegations in only 19 states:

1. California
2. Connecticut
3. Hawaii
4. Maine
5. Massachusetts
6. Michigan
7. Minnesota
8. Missouri
9. New Jersey
10. New York
11. North Dakota
12. Oregon
13. Pennsylvania
14. Rhode Island
15. Texas
16. Vermont
17. Virginia
18. Washington
19. Wisconsin

It is possible that California, a very volatile state in voting could alter its delegation
toward the GOP, but not likely. On the other hand, in Texas, Democrats hold only a two seat advantage, and it has been tipping more and more to the Republicans with
each election. Democrats also hold Wisconsin, Washington, Virginia, Tennessee,
South Carolina, Oregon, and New Jersey by but one seat. And these are states
in which there is some potential for Republicans to pick up seat and tip the balance.
Indeed, it is not so unlikely that the GOP could hold sway in at least both South Carolina and Virginia after this election.

Arkansas has two Republicans and two Democrats in the 105th Congress.
Maryland is also evenly split with four from each party. There are six each
from North Carolina. And Illinois has ten from each. West Virginia has a Democrat
and a Republican. But since Bush would have 26 delegations voting for him, he
would have the inside track, to say the least.

The contest for Vice President in the Senate is more open to question. The make-up
of the Senate in the 105th Senate is 54 to 45 for Republicans, but the GOP is more
exposed this election cycle with many more of its seats up for re-election:

Republican seats up:

1. Arizona
2. Delaware
3. Florida
4. Georgia
5. Indiana
6. Maine
7. Michigan
8. Minnesota
9. Mississippi
10. Missouri
11. Montana
12. Ohio
13. Pennsylvania
14. Rhode Island
15. Tennessee
16. Texas
17. Utah
18. Vermont
19. Washington
20. Wyoming

Democrat seats up:

1. California
2. Connecticut
3. Hawaii
4. Maryland
5. Massachusetts
6. Nebraska
7. Nevada
8. New Jersey
9. New Mexico
10. New York
11. North Dakota
12. Virginia
13. West Virginia
14. Wisconsin

Democrats have been expressing some hope that they will be able to erode Republican control of the Senate. Eight of the Republican seats appear to be
in very tight races, while only three or four Democrat seats are genuinely up-for-grabs, it would seem. If everything went for the Democrats, the balance in the Senate
would reverse itself from 54 to 45 to 55 to 45, but that is quite unlikely. But a net
gain of five seats would deadlock the chamber. And if that happened, the presiding
officer of the Senate, the Vice President (still Al Gore until January 20) would cast
the tie-breaking vote. That could leave us with the unlikely outcome of a Republican
President and Democrat VP. This might be an 'interesting' scenario, but one that is
not a very good bet. Democrats may pick up seats in the Senate, but probably note
enough to gain control of it in the next Congress, though it may be very close.

Thus, the rather unlikely chance of a Congressional election of the President and
Vice President would do little to alter the political landscape. It is likely that Bush
will carry the popular vote by a small margin. Polls have him from 1 to 7 points ahead.
Gore in these polls leads in only 7 states outside the margin of error
(only 67 electoral votes).

I do not think there will be a 'tie' in the electoral college. Bush may not win a vast
majority, though that is possible. Many state votes will be very close, and may well
rest on voter interest and turn-out November 7.Besides, if Bush did not win, it would
be the first time the Weekly Reader poll was wrong --- ever!
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