National Journal Sees GOP Maintaining Current Margin In the New House

House Races To Watch
Last updated: October 21, 2000

In order to better track the status of the battle for the House, Hotline Scoop is keeping tabs on more than 200 races across the country. The races are divided in to three categories -- Open Seats, Freshmen and Veterans To Watch -- then rated by the challenger party's chance of picking up the seat. Thus, a tier one GOP seat is good news for the Democrats; likewise, a tier one Dem seat is good news for the Republicans. The party currently holding the seat is indicated next to the district number

House Scoops:
House Race Extra
House Race Rankings
25 Hottest Races

The arrows next to the race indicate the races' chances shifting. For example, a race with an in a tier one level means the race is extremely likely to change seats; in any other tier, it means it's close to moving up to the next tier. A race with an means it could slip down to the next tier. Obviously, a race with no arrow means it is a pure toss-up in tier one races, or stagnant in the other tiers.


Total Tier One Seats: 22R, 11D

Seats Extremely Likely To Change Seats: 6R, 5D
Current House Line-Up: 223R, 210D, 2I (including the current Dem vacancy in MN 04 and the GOP vacancy in VA 01)
Hard Projection: 222R, 211D, 2I -- based only on seats extremely likely to change seats.
With Toss-Ups Configured: 218R, 215D, 2I -- assuming that each party wins 50% of its toss-up races, Dems could gain up to 4 additional seats. Last week's projection, with toss-ups: 216R, 217D, 2I. Note: Any tier one seat with a down arrow is not included in the toss-up configuration.
Projections are based on the current state of play and assumes no last minute turnout breeze for either side.
Open Seats (26R, 9D)
Given the advantages of incumbency, these are the toughest seats to hold on to. In '98, just six of 401 incumbents were defeated. In the 34 open seat races of 2000, 11 seats changed hands.

Tier One Open Seats: The Best Pick-Up Opportunities (12R, 7D) CA 15 (R)
CA 31 (R) ^
FL 08 (R)
FL 12 (R)
IL 10 (R)
MI 08 (D)
MN 04 (D)
MO 06 (D)
NJ 07 (R)
NY 01 (D)
NY 02 (R)
OH 12 (R)
OK 02 (R)
PA 04 (D)
UT 02 (R)
VA 02 (D)
WA 02 (R)
WV 02 (D)

Tier Two Open Seats: Potential Sleepers (4R) IL 15 (R)
IN 02 (R)
MO 02 (R)
SC 01 (R)

Tier Three Open Seats: Long Shots (10R, 2D) AZ 01 (R)
CA 48 (R)
FL 04 (R)
ID 01 (R)
IN 07 (R)
MO 01 (D)
NE 03 (R)
PA 19 (R)
RI 02 (D)
TX 07 (R)
VA 01 (R)
VA 07 (R)

Freshmen (19R, 24D)
For most members, the toughest reelection battle is the first. Of the six incumbents defeated in '98, four were freshmen at the time.

Tier One Freshmen: The Best Pick-Up Opportunities (3R, 2D) CA 36 (R)
KS 03 (D)
KY 06 (R)
NJ 12 (D)
PA 10 (R)

Tier Two Freshmen: Potential Sleepers (3R, 5D) CO 06 (R)
MS 04 (D)
NV 01 (D)
NC 08 (R)
PA 13 (D)
PA 15 (R)
WA 01 (D)
WI 02 (D)

Tier Three Freshmen: Long Shots (12R, 18D) CA 01 (D)
CA 03 (R)
CA 34 (D)
CA 41 (R)
CA 42 (D)
CO 02 (D)
CT 01 (D)
GA 06 (R)
ID 02 (R)
IL 09 (D)
IL 13 (R)
IL 19 (D)
IN 09 (D)
KY 04 (D)
LA 01 (R)
MA 08 (D)
NE 02 (R)
NM 03 (D)
NY 07 (D)
NY 09 (D)
NY 22 (R)
NY 27 (R)
OH 11 (D)
OR 01 (D)
OR 02 (R)
SC 04 (R)
TX 20 (D)
WA 03 (D)
WI 01 (R)
WI 08 (D)

Veterans To Watch (59R, 32D) -- Criteria
It's tough to oust an incumbent -- that's why the top target list for the vets to watch is so small. We added a "Would've, Should've, Could've..." category for races in vulnerable districts that have gone unnoticed by the opposition -- usually because of an incumbent's popularity in the district.

Tier One Veterans To Watch: The Best Pick-Up Opportunities (7R, 2D) AR 04 (R)
CA 20 (D)
CA 27 (R)
CA 49 (R)
CT 05 (D)
FL 22 (R)
IN 08 (R)
KY 03 (R)
NC 11 (R)

Tier Two Veterans To Watch: Potential Sleepers (11R, 11D) AL 04 (D)
CA 10 (D)
CA 22 (D)
CA 23 (R)
CA 38 (R)
CT 02 (D)
FL 03 (D)
GA 07 (R)
GA 08 (R)
IL 17 (D)
IN 03 (D)
KY 01 (R)
MD 08 (R)
MN 06 (D)
NH 02 (R)
NJ 03 (R)
NM 01 (R)
NC 02 (D)
NC 03 (R)
SC 05 (D)
WA 05 (R)

Tier Three Veterans To Watch: Long Shots (11R, 8D, 1I) GA 02 (D)
IL 20 (D)
IA 01 (R)
MI 01 (D)
MI 10 (D)
MN 01 (R)
MN 03 (R)
NM 02 (R)
NY 04 (D)
NY 20 (R)
NY 30 (R)
OH 01 (R)
OH 18 (R)
TN 04 (R)
TX 11 (D)
TX 12 (R)
TX 14 (R)
TX 17 (D)
VA 05 (I)
WA 09 (D)

Tier Four Veterans To Watch: Would've, Should've, Could've... (29R, 12D) AL 05 (D)
AZ 05 (R)
AZ 06 (R)
CA 11 (R)
CA 43 (R)
CT 04 (R)
CT 06 (R)
FL 10 (R)
GA 10 (R)
IL 11 (R)
IA 02 (R)
IA 04 (R)
KY 05 (R)
LA 03 (R)
LA 04 (R)
LA 05 (R)
LA 06 (R)
MA 01 (D)
MA 05 (D)
MA 06 (D)
MI 04 (R)
MI 06 (R)
MI 07 (R)
MS 05 (D)
MO 04 (D)
MO 08 (R)
MO 09 (R)
NY 03 (R)
NY 25 (R)
NY 26 (D)
OH 19 (R)
OK 03 (R)
OR 05 (D)
PA 06 (D)
PA 08 (R)
PA 21 (R)
TN 06 (D)
TX 04 (D)
TX 23 (R)
VA 04 (D)
WA 08 (R)

Criteria For Veterans To Watch:

One of the two party committees has said the incumbent will be a target.
Incumbent received 55 percent or less in 1996.
Incumbent represents a district where the opposing party has carried the district in each of the last two pres. elections.
If an incumbent meets one or more of these criteria and is not listed, it is most likely because the incumbent is unopposed.
The right challenger pops up.
^ Editor's note: Rep. Martinez (R) was outsted in the Dem party, then switched parties. Now, with the seat currently being held by the GOP, it's an almost certain Dem pick-up.

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