November 1, 2000




There is a very good chance that Bush will win with a big landslide in electoral votes,
and the House and Senate will remain in GOP hands.
Even the Weekly Reader poll which has been correct every time
since it began in 1956, has Bush ahead 66% to 33%.


House of Representatives

Current House Line-Up: 223R, 210D, 2I (including the current Dem vacancy in MN 04 and the GOP vacancy in VA 01)
Hard Projection: 221R, 212D, 2I -- based only on seats extremely likely to change seats.
With Toss-Ups Configured: 218R, 215D, 2I (a very conservative estimate)


US Senate

For Democrats to capture the Senate, they would have to hold onto Robb's seat in Virginia and hold the Nebraska, New Jersey and New York open seats, losing only their other open seat in Nevada. They would then need to pick up Minnesota and beat four of the following five: Abraham, Ashcroft, Burns, Gorton, and Roth. It is unlikely that Democrats will carry four of those five.(National Journal on aol)

Zogby Poll On NY US Senate Seat (10/20)

Lazio 43
Clinton 42


How Bush May Get As Many As 457 Electoral Votes, Gore As Few As 81
(polls from National Journal on aol)
(++ outside margin of error) (+ within margin of error)

Bush Gore
FL (25) +48 44 L.A. Times 10/27-29 +/- 5
IL (22) +44 43 Fox/Opin. Dyn. 10/25-26 +/- 4
ME (4) +42 37 Critical Insights 10/15-17 +/- 4.1
MN (10) +44 41 Market Solutions 10/14-18 +/- 3.5
NM (5) +44 41 Mason-Dixon 9/28-30 +/- 5
NV (4) +47 43 Mason-Dixon 10/26-28 +/- 4
OH (21) +45 41 Mason-Dixon 10/18-19 +/- 4
++50 42 Univ. of Cincy 10/18-25 +/- 3.8
+48 43 Zogby 10/28-30 +/- 4
OR (7) +44 40 Riley Research 10/2-12 +/- 4.3
+45 41 ARG 10/20-24 +/- 4
PA (23) +47 45 L.A. Times 10/27-29 +/- 4
WI (11) ++49 40 Harris Inter. 10/18-21 +/- 4

142



AL (9) ++55 37 Capital Survey 10/18-20 +/- 4.7
AK (3) ++47 26 ARG 9/11-17 +/- 4
AR (6) +45 41 Mason-Dixon 10/27-29 +/- 4
AZ (8) ++49 39 KAET-TV/AZ Univ. 10/19-22 +/- 4
CO (8) ++48 34 Ciruli 10/25-27 +/- 5
GA (13) +48 40 Mason-Dixon 10/12-14 +/- 4
ID (4) ++56 30 Mason-Dixon 10/25-26 +/- 4
IN (12) ++54 38 Research 2000 10/13-15 +/- 4
KS (6) ++55 32 ARG 9/12-15 +/- 4
KY (8) ++51 41 Bluegrass Poll 9/18-21 +/- 4
LA (9) ++52 39 Mason-Dixon 10/20-22 +/- 4
MO (11) +46 45 Zogby 10/28-30 +/- 4
MS (7) ++48 37 ARG 9/12-16 +/- 4
MT (3) ++49 37 Mason-Dixon 10/23-24 +/- 4
NE (5) ++56 31 RKM Research 10/25-27 +/- 3
NC (14) ++50 38 KPC Research 10/12-17 +/- 4.9
ND (3) ++47 35 Public Affairs 10/2-5 +/- 4
OK (8) ++51 33 Consumer Logic 9/23-10/2 +/- 3.5
SC (8) ++52 39 Mason-Dixon 9/28-30 +/- 4
SD (3) ++55 34 ARG 9/6-10 +/- 4
TN (11) +50 45 Zogby 10/28-30 +/- 4
TX (32) ++58 30 ARG 9/14-19 +/- 4
UT (5) ++57 29 ARG 9/8-12 +/- 4
VA (13) ++52 44 Wash. Post 10/22-26 +/- 3
+48 41 Mason-Dixon 10/24-25 +/- 4
WV (5) ++47 37 OH State 10/11-24 +/- 4
++46 36 Ryan-McGinn (R) 10/21-23 +/- 4
WY (3) ++57 37 Mason-Dixon 9/16-17 +/- 5

218



IA (7) 42 +44 PSI Poll 9/25 +/- 4.8
DE (3) 43 +45 Mason-Dixon 10/4-5 +/- 4
MI (18) 43 43 EPIC/MRA 10/16-19 +/- 4
NH (4) 41 +44 Research 2000 10/16-18 +/- 4
WA (11) 43 +45 American Research 10/12-16 +/- 4
(note that these are all older polls that don't reflect the national trend toward Bush)

43



142
218
43

Bush 403
Gore 135


CA (54) 39 +44 PPIC 10/11-18 +/- 3.5

Bush 457
Gore 81



Popular Vote Polls 10/31

ABC CNN MSNBC Voter W.Post
Bush 47 47 45 44 47
Gore 47 44 42 39 46

NATIONAL

ABC News tracking poll:

- Bush, 47 percent

- Gore, 47 percent

- Nader, 3 percent

- Buchanan, less than 1 percent

Oct. 27-29, 998 LV, MoE 3 percentage points

IBD-CSM-TIPP tracking poll:

- Bush, 47 percent

- Gore, 41 percent

- Nader, 3 percent

- Buchanan, 1 percent

Oct. 26-29, 739 LV, MoE 4 percentage points, co-sponsored by Investor's Business Daily and Christian Science Monitor

ICR:

- Bush, 43 percent

- Gore, 40 percent

- Nader, 9 percent

- Buchanan, 3 percent

Oct. 25-29, 1,103 LV, MoE 3 percentage points

CNN-USA Today-Gallup tracking poll:

- Bush, 47 percent

- Gore, 44 percent

- Nader, 2 percent

- Buchanan, 1 percent

Oct. 26-28, 2,207 LV, MoE 2 percentage points

MSNBC-Reuters-Zogby tracking poll:

- Bush, 45 percent

- Gore, 42 percent

- Nader, 5 percent

- Buchanan, 1 percent

Oct. 26-29, 1,213 LV, MoE 3 percentage points

Voter.com Battleground tracking poll:

- Bush, 43 percent

- Gore, 40 percent

- Nader, 4 percent

- Buchanan, 1 percent

Oct. 23-26, 1,000 LV, MoE 3 percentage points

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